Box Office Preditction Summer 2013

Now this box office prediction won’t be very thorough it’s mostly going to be tentpole esque nerd franchises.  I know the box office pretty well , I was the only person who said Avengers would make a billion dollars and out gross The Dark Knight Rises.  I think it’s fun to speculate over which movies will make what for shit’s in gigs, using a lack of real research so it’s more on the fly.

Ironman 3 Domestic :350

Ironman 3 has a lot going for it.  It’s first out the summer it’ll easily make over 120 Million opening and it has two solid weeks of no competition.  The First movies out of the summer always make the most amount of money.  Factor in the bankability of RDJ, Rollover from the Avengers, A new creative team for credibility, and 3D and IMAX, it shouldn’t have any problems taking the thrown as the highest grossing movie of 2013.

Star Trek Domestic : 200 Million

Now this a bit of a Wild Card.  On one hand the first Star Trek in the rebooted franchise was well received and got a lot of word of mouth.  The advertisements are really turning this into quite the event.  On the other hand this movie is being squashed by not one not two, but three different franchises.  Now a movie can survive competition if it’s before or after, but not only will Ironman 3 take up some of it’s money, it’s got Fast and The Furious and Hangover two major giants in the following week.  I’m guessing this movie will open around 90 Million get squashed and make it’s money internationally

Fast Six Domestic 200 Million

Once again this movie probably goofed up by going against so many franchises at once.  It’ll probably make it’s money back oversees, but Kung Fu Panda went head up with Hangover Part II and got crushed.  Still pulling for this one, word of mouth will be this ones best friend. Not to mention there’s another kids movie called Epic coming out which will dip a little into Fast Six’s pockets a little bit.

Hangover Part III : 250 Million

This is another wild card.  This franchise is literally a license to print money, but it has several things going against it.  First off most people consider the first sequel a little stale, and was just a rip off of the first one.  Second, there’s competition of course.  Third, this movie comes out in 2 months and the first trailer was absolutely god awful.  It didn’t show the premise, it didn’t tell any story, and it definitely didn’t do anything to set itself apart from the previous movies which people may be getting tired of.  I know I am.  Worst of all there’s no jokes.  Not one funny moment.  Wrong move, either film the movie earlier, release a teaser trailer from what footage you have, or just bite the bullet and release one great trailer when you can.  This might be the fall of the mighty wolf pack.

After Earth Domestic : 150

This movie has M. Night Shamalyan and Will Smith and Jaden Smith.  Now none experience movie goers will know to stay away from this movie , but EVERYBODY else loves Will Smith and thinks he’s god’s gift to cinema.  I think he’s okay, he’s no Denzel and really he’s not even a Robert Downey Jr. But he usually brings in a significant amount of box office so against my best judgement I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt.

Man Of Steel : 250 Million

I’m guessing this movie will either do Ironman 1 & 2 Numbers or possibly Ironman 3 numbers.  Nolan can put his name on literally anything and it’ll make money he has little fanboys nuts in his hands.  The factor I’m thinking about is Zack Snyder, and Franchise Fatique.  Superman already got a reboot twice and usually that puts a small damper on box office in take.  What Superman might have to worry about is competition on 3 fronts.  Kids will want to see Monsters University , Adults will want to see This is How it Ends , and general movie gooers might want to see World War Z.  Either this will do extremely well and crush all competitors or do mild business.  If I was DC I’d be pushing the Justice League Factor to make more money.  Not to mention DC has literally messed up every other DC Property except Batman recently. We’ll see.

Long Ranger : Bomb

Lone Ranger is going to be John Carter all over again.  The western genre has the weakest box office draw of any other genre.  As good as Rango was it didn’t exactly kill it at the box office.  Not to mention this looks like a rip off of a few different Disney Properties.  Not to mention people are tired of Johnny Depp, in America at least.  The last Pirates movie only made a billion due to international.  He’s had box office disappointment after disappointment.  Disney is trying to hard to make a tentpole and it’s going to continuously bite them in the ass until they learn otherwise.

Pacific Rim Domestic 200 Million.. Maybe

This is the absolute biggest Wild Card of the summer.  This movies is getting by only on the push by geeks.  I don’t think it’ll do Transformers sequel numbers but definetlhy Transformers 1 numbers, unfortunately Pacific Rim isn’t an established property which will be hard to make into a tentpole.  But it’s gun dam robots fighting monsters it’s so bad ass and it sells itself.  I prey for Warner Brothers they get their new franchise because ever since Harry Potter they’ve been pushing hard for it.

Wolverine 200 Million Domestic

This movie will probably do sightly better then Xmen First Class.  First class had excellent word of mouth and still only got around 400 Million.  Wolverine has Hugh Jackman, but it also has the abysmal Wolverine Origins which sunk down First Class.  Word of Mouth will be this movies savior.

Kick Ass 2 : Domestic 100 Million

Kickass 2 has absolutely nothing stopping it this time around.  No real competition other then Comic Book Movie Fatique which never really is a factor anymore.  It has a really good marketing campaign cast interviews the whole cast back.. AND JIM CARREY.  Jim Carrey is box office kryptonite right now, and he’s constantly reinventing himself, but in all the wrong ways finically at least.  This does everything a comic book movie needs to make more money on the sequel.  Bigger, Darker, New characters, New Villian.  This movie will do pretty well depending on word of mouth.

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